On January 3rd, Nicolás Maduro, Venezuela’s illegitimate president, was captured by U.S. special forces in a stunning and spectacular raid in Caracas. Maduro (also known as El Bigote, or the moustache) and his wife, Cilia Flores, were subsequently taken to New York where they are awaiting trial on drug charges. Kidnapping a sovereign leader is not unprecedented; Panama’s Manuel Noriega befell the same fate in 1989, also for drugs-related crimes, although he escaped to the Vatican’s mission and literally had to be blasted out of his hiding place with rock music.
From Chavismo to Trumpismo…
The actions by the U.S. government against Venezuela (both Maduro’s abduction and bombing speedboats that allegedly were used to ferry drugs to the U.S) are in violation of international law, specifically using force against the territorial integrity and political independence of another state unless approved by the UN Security Council or as self-defense. To invoke the right of self-defense, the U.S. must prove that it is under (the threat of) armed attack by Venezuela. President Trump might point to criminals from the Tren de Aragua gang that supposedly commit a guerilla warfare on U.S. territory. The gang’s connection to Maduro or the Venezuelan government is unclear, but in any case to label its activities as an attack on America seems far-fetched.
Humanitarian considerations also possibly could be invoked to justify use of force (though many law experts would dispute this). During Maduro’s reign since 2013, GDP per capital has dropped by two-thirds to USD 3,100 (source: IMF). Around 56% of the population lives in extreme poverty with 40% experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity whereas 70% do not have access to health care services. (source: European Council). Nearly 8 million Venezuelans (more than a quarter of the population) have fled the country. Indeed, the last time we wrote about Venezuela was in July 2018 (“Living on borrowed time”) and even then, the situation was already so dire that we thought that Maduro’s days as the leader of the Bolivarian Republic were counted. How wrong we were! We would argue that in order to improve humanitarian conditions in Venezuela, a regime change would be required. Instead, Trump is happy to work with the present regime, nominating Delcy Rodríguez, vice president under Maduro and carved from the same wood, to follow his orders (drill for oil). Vladimir Padrino, minister of defence (ironically, Padrino is translated as godfather but is also used to describe a crime boss) and Diosdado Cabello, minister of interior and responsible for the “colectivos”, a pro-regime armed paramilitary group that crisscrosses Venezuela’s cities on motorbikes to stifle dissent amongst the country’s citizens, remain in their positions. Mr. Trump dismissed María Corina Machado and her proxy Edmundo González as irrelevant despite them winning presidential elections in July 2024 by a landslide. It probably would be very risky to parachute Ms. Machado into the presidential seat without substantial U.S. military support given how corrupt and criminal the current government is. But to run with Delcy is not a long-term solution. The Trump administration has not yet presented a plan for Venezuela’s future and it seems that Trump himself doesn’t care.
Although we celebrate the detention of bad hombre Nicolás Maduro, as said the unilateral actions of the U.S. government are illegal, i.e. violating international law. Further, it is unlikely that the wellbeing of Venezuelans (at least for those that are not part of Delcy’s clique) will materially improve in the near future. Trump aims to “run” Venezuela by increasing oil production with revenues being shared by Americans and Venezuelans, but the country’s oil infrastructure is in shambles (production cratered from 2.5 million boepd 10 years ago to 0.8 million in 2025) and would require a very substantial investment (USD 70-100 billion according to some estimates plus engineers as most have fled the country in droves) in an unstable political environment with uncertainty whether contracts will be legally enforceable in a post-Delcy regime scenario. With Brent trading at USD 60 p/b and new supplies in the region coming on-stream (Brazil-Amazon basin, Guyana, Suriname), we would think the oil majors will be careful to commit resources to Venezuela.
Disrespecting international law is a real concern. In the press conference discussing Maduro’s capture, Mr. Trump also threatened Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro (“he has to watch his ass”) and Mexico (“cartels are running the country, we are going to have to do something”) and said he would not rule out military action in either case. Mr. Trump dusted off the Monroe Doctrine, which was developed in 1823 by then-president James Monroe to prevent European powers from colonizing the western hemisphere (Latin America basically). In 1904, the doctrine was updated by Ted Roosevelt, stating that the U.S. has the right to intervene in Latin American countries if and when U.S. (corporate) interests were at stake (known as the Roosevelt Corollary). After World War II the doctrine was expanded to cover all foreign and not only European interference. Trump goes a step further (in what he calls the “Donroe Doctrine”) and says that the U.S. has a right to intervene in countries in the western hemisphere, also to control natural resources in these countries irrespective of whether U.S. corporates are (already) involved. Thus, Trump says “we do need Greenland, absolutely”, potentially blowing up NATO if he decides to walk the talk.
That oil is mine…
Trump’s Venezuelan adventure is just one example of how he disregards legal rights and principles. Do we want to live in an international system where any nation that is powerful enough (“might is right”) can implement its demands, whether justified or not, through the use of force? How are China and Russia (itself already a violator in Ukraine) going to interpret this? Does the U.S. really want to go it alone, shredding longstanding alliances? Hopefully, senior U.S. politicians from both parties understand that Mr. Trump’s America First foreign (as well as domestic) policies corrode the country’s liberal democracy and the global rules-based system and will try to talk some sense into him. Meanwhile, Delcy better starts to drill for oil…
